Xi-Biden Summit: China and US likely head for a period of uneasy calm, but for how long?

The future trajectory of China-US relations will be defined by alternating periods of fighting and talking (打打谈谈，谈谈打打).

Thought of the day on China

On Monday morning, I conducted a poll on social media platforms including Twitter, LinkedIn and Substack to gauge expectations to the upcoming meeting between China’s President Xi Jinping and his US counterpart Joe Biden to be held in Bali later in the day.

As expected, nearly half of the respondents across the platforms believed the summit, the first face to face conversation between top leaders in five years, was unlikely to produce any concrete result.

Ahead of the meeting, US officials also downplayed any hope for any tangible progress between the two world powers.

Indeed, when expectations were set so low, the outcome of the meeting could easily exceed them.

That is exactly what has transpired after their three-hour talks as both Xi and Biden vowed to work together to bring the bilateral relationship back on track. There is tangible progress after all. Both leaders have decided to restart talks on climate change, debt relief, health and food security. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will visit Beijing soon to follow up on their discusisons.

Comparing the summaries of the meeting from both sides, Beijing appears to be more satisfied.

While the White House merely described the talk as “candid”, Wang Yi, China’s foreign minister, described the meeting not only “candid” but also “in-depth, constructive, and strategic”.

Biden seemed determine to maintain the current course of competing “vigorously” with China but also reiterated that this competition should not veer into conflict and both sides should manage competition responsibly and maintain open lines of communication.

Xi appeared to have taken a high road and expressed unhappiness with Biden’s emphasis on competition by arguing that the bilateral ties should be defined by dialogue and win-win co-operation, not confrontation and zero-sum competition.

According to the White House’s succinct statement, Biden has raised concerns on Xinjiang, Tibet, and Hong Kong, and human rights more broadly. In particular, he raised U.S. objections to “(China’s) coercive and increasingly aggressive actions toward Taiwan” and China’s non-market economic practices.

By comparison, Xi appeared more direct and blunt in addressing the US concerns in greater details and clarity.

He made it clear that the Taiwan question was at the very core of China’s core interests, and the first red line that must not be crossed in bilateral relations.

Xi also robustly defended China’s authoritarian governance model, its own values, and its socialist system. He even said that “we take great pride in” the Chinese-style democracy known as “the whole process people’s democracy”.

Curiously, he also for the first time addressed the on-going discussion of “democracy vs authoritarianism”, dismissing the narrative as not representing the trend of the times.

All in all, the Chinese side seemed to suggest that the summit has achieved the desired results – as Wang has described “deepening communications, stating intentions, drawing red lines, preventing conflicts, setting directions, and exploring co-operation”.

Following the summit, Biden said in a press conference that he did not find Xi more confrontational or more conciliatory but also suggested that China was willing to compromise on various issues.

Indeed, following China’s latest leadership changes which saw Xi secure a norm-busting third term as the party chief and pack the inner sanctum with his allies, Beijing intended the Xi-Biden summit as a definitive sign that China was back on international arena after shutting off itself from the rest of the world for the past three years because of Covid restrictions.

On that note, both Beijing and Washington appeared keen to put a floor under worsening ties and prevent the two countries from heading for a new cold war or a hot war over Taiwan.

Back in 2019 when I gave a talk to a group of investors in Hong Kong, I suggested that the future trajectory of China-US relations would be characterized by alternating periods of fighting and talking (打打谈谈, 谈谈打打).  This seems to be how the bilateral ties have played out. Since Biden became the president in January 2021, US and China have been fighting each other on so many fronts. Now the both countries are most likely to head into a period of an uneasy truce before another flare-up occurs. It is up to the leaders of the two countries to take full advantage of the period of peace and ensure it will last longer by focusing on fostering stronger economic ties and people to people exchanges as well as working on the transnational challenges including climate change, health and food security.

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