Thought of the Day: what are the most important signals that China is to make major changes to its controversial zero-Covid policy and shift to a new regime? A question of which I have been asked a lot lately.
People expected a significant easing after CCP’s 20th congress last month when Xi Jinping secured a third team as the party chief but nothing happened. Now they are raising hope a major change would occur in March when China’s legislature confirms Xi as president, completing the country’s most important twice in a decade political cycle.
After three years of misery, investors are clutching at any straw to remain hopeful. This week, they bade up shares on an unverified social media post that China was preparing for an easing.
Xi has begun receiving foreign heads of governments and other Chinese leaders have started to travel abroad. Speculation is rife Beijing plans to soon reduce the quarantine time for overseas arrivals from 10 days to seven. That does not mean the country is open for business.
The draconian controls remain unchanged at home even though the daily report of asymptomatic cases is four times that ones with symptoms, meaning the virus has weakened significantly. Xinjiang has been under effective lockdown for three months.
With the onset of winter when the transmission of respiratory diseases is at peak, any major change is unlikely.
For me, a more certain sign Beijing is shifting to a new regime is that leading epidemiologists are allowed to go on TV and social media to have an informed debate and say something along the line that the virus has weakened, there is nothing major to worry if one is infected, and the best defense is to vaccinate.
Before that happens, China’s zero-Covid will continue unfortunately. The way the things are going, China will probably be the last country in the world to open up fully.